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岗位阵亡名单!「人工智能」可能让你失业,却抢不了这10种铁饭碗!

“15年内,将有一半的工作被人工智能取代!”

图片来源:视觉中国

这是李开复博士最近给出的预言。和一味唱衰,在就业市场大喊“狼来了”的论调不同,这位跟AI打了半辈子交道的学者、曾经的谷歌在中国的掌门人认为,AI的发展确实会取代一部分工作,但也有一些工作岗位并不能被取代。

Kai-Fu Lee, the author of bestselling book AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order, told Dailymail.com the world of employments was facing a crisis 'akin to that faced by farmers during the industrial revolution.'

著有《人工智能超级力量:中国、硅谷及世界新秩序》一书的李开复博士最近在接受英国《每日邮报》采访时曾说,目前全球就业形势所面临的困境,和工业革命时代农民们的挑战相似。

'People aren't really fully aware of the effect AI will have on their jobs,' he said.

“人们尚未完全意识到人工智能给他们彼此的工作带来的影响”他说。

在采访中,李博士认为,有必要“告诫人们这场替代即将来临,以及该如何重获技能”。

图片来源:视觉中国

那么在他眼中,这个替代性的分水岭是什么呢?是人性。

Crucially, he says AI cannot interact with humans 'exactly like humans', with empathy, human-human connection, and compassion.

重要的是,他说人工智能不能像人一样在沟通中表达出共鸣和同情心。

Psychiatrists, social workers and marriage counselors are unlikely to lose their jobs, along with nurses, AI researchers and scientists, he believes.

精神科医生、社会工作者和婚姻咨询师都不太可能失业,还有护士、人工智能研究人员和科学家。

除了这些“安全区”,他也列出了一份“濒危名单”:

TEN MOST ENDANGERED JOBS FROM AI

最受人工智能威胁的十大工作

Telemarketer / telesales

电话销售人员

Customer support

顾客支持

Warehouse workers

仓库管理员

Clerks and operational staff

文员

Telephone operators

电话接线员

Teller/cashier

收银员

Fast food workers

快餐店服务员

Dish washers

洗碗工

Assembly line inspector

流水线监督员

Couriers

快递员

电话销售人员会最先失业——谷歌已经研制出了能够以假乱真的聊天机器人,尽管饱受争议。

'You've probably already received robo-calls, but future calls will be more natural,' he says.

“你也许已经接到过机器人打来的电话,但是以后这会更普遍。”他说。

'AI can use customer profiles, past purchases, and emotional recognition to find ways to appeal to them - even using a soothing female voice or a persuasive male voice.'

“人工智能可以根据客户资料、购买记录和情绪识别,来找到吸引他们的方法,甚至还会用贴心的女声或颇具说服力的男生来拉近和客户的距离。”

而更恐怖的是,还有一份“阵亡名单”:

JOBS AI WILL TAKE OVER FIRST

最先被人工智能取代的工作

Sales and Marketing Research

销售和市场研究员

Insurance adjuster

保险理算员

Security guards

保安

Truck drivers

卡车司机

Consumer loan underwriter

消费贷担保人

Financial and sports journalists

财经和体育记者

Bookkeepers & Financial Analysts

图书管理员和财经分析师

Fruit pickers

摘果工

Investment professionals

投资顾问

Radiologist

放射科医生

图片来源:视觉中国

但也有些岗位可以“高枕无忧”,你能发现它们有什么共性吗?

JOBS AN AI WON'T BE ABLE TO DO

不能被人工智能取代的工作

Psychiatrists

精神科医生

Therapists

治疗师

Medical caregivers

医务人员

AI researchers and engineers

人工智能研究人员和工程师

Fiction writers

小说家

Teachers

老师

Criminal defense attorney

辩护律师

Computer Scientists & Engineers

计算机科学家和工程师

Scientists

科学家

Managers (actually leaders)

经理(管理者)

'Human to human interaction is safe, providing comfort and satisfaction is safe. The key to jobs in the future will be empathy, he said.

包含人与人之间的互动的,以及提供方便和让人满意的工作都还不会失业。他说那些带给人宽慰的工作在未来将成为热门。


图片来源:视觉中国

上面这些还好理解,要么更偏感性,要么注重交流,要么是创造AI的人。不过,接下来李博士又给出的10个“铁饭碗”,就有些小意外了:

Fitness trainer - Will customize programs for each of us, provide companionship, and create a forcing function for us not to procrastinate.

健身教练:为客人量身定制健身计划并陪伴、监督我们锻炼。

Elderly caretaker- While AI can help with monitoring, security, and perhaps movement of the elderly, only human assistants can help with bathing, dressing, and most importantly conversation and keeping company. These are not doable by AI.

照顾老年人的看护:人工智能可以用来看护老人,保障老人的安全,还可以方便老年人的行动。但洗澡、换衣服,还有聊天、作伴却必须由人类护工来做。人工智能做不了这些。


Housecleaner - Cleaner, gardener, and other jobs that work in unstructured spaces with changing conditions are difficult for robots.

家庭保洁员:保洁员、园丁以及其他一些无序的空间中的工作,对机器人来说会很困难。


Nurse- Nurses, child care workers, mental health support specialists, and drug rehabilitation therapists are among the most difficult for machines to replicate, because of the high degree of human interaction, communications, and trust-building.

护士:护士、幼师、精神健康专家、戒毒治疗医生,是最难被机器替代的,因为这些工作需要高度的互动、交流和信任构建。


Concierge- While standard services are handled by the Internet, and AI, there will be a larger premium offered to substantially better services with a human touch, personalization, and long-term relationship and trust.

看门人:当互联网和人工智能可以处理标准化的服务时,能够通过人性化、个性化和长期的信任来提供更好的服务,就掌握了议价能力。


Athlete- Athletics and sports will not be affected at all just because machines will become better at the games.

运动员:仅仅是机器在体育项目的表现更娴熟了,还并不会让体育界受到影响。


Nanny- Many of the physical tasks of the nanny (vacuuming, washing dishes) will ultimately be automated, as the nanny job gradually shifts to more 'love and personalization'

保姆:保姆要做的很多体力活(使用吸尘器、刷碗)最终都会被机器代替,起而代之的是保姆的工作将转向更多的“爱和个性化”。


Tour Guide - A good tour guide is a good story teller, which means he or she combines personal experiences, theatrical styles, and encyclopedic knowledge into an inimitable experience.

导游:好的导游会讲故事,这意味着能够结合自身的经历,通过绘声绘色的、百科全书般的讲解,带给游客无以伦比的体验。


Recruiter - Human resources in general, recruiting in particular, and headhunters specifically, are very much about the human touch.

招聘人员:人力资源,特别是招聘,还有猎头,都特别依赖人际沟通。


Data processing and labeling- AI will be trained on an unbelievable amount of ever-increasing data, which at least initially need to be manually selected, processed, labeled, and categorized.

数据处理和标记人员:要让人工智能学会处理海量数据,起初还是需要由人来进行筛选、处理、标记和分类的。

发现没有?这一批工作并不是传统意义上的“金领”,有的甚至连“白领”都不是。看来,在人工智能的追赶和挑战之下,知识和技能难免被模仿和超越,而沟通、关怀、信任、陪伴……这些人文与人性方面的因素,看来暂时还是安全的。

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